…Settings (apply to every player unless overridden)
How the fair is built. HR/PA % is his chance of a home run in any single plate appearance: the rate that,
spread over his pregame expected PAs (Pregame E[PA]), reproduces the Kalshi YES mid at first pitch (Pregame %).
E[PA] left is his expected plate appearances for the rest of the game, simulated from the live inning, outs, bases,
score and lineup spot. Fair % = chance of at least one HR in those remaining PAs, about 1 − (1 − HR/PA)^E[PA] (averaged
over how many PAs he actually gets). The bid uses HR/PA padded by the pad setting (Bid HR/PA %), minus the edge.
"Next" = the fair after his next PA if he doesn't homer. The desk posts post-only NO buys at
min(model NO bid, others' best NO bid + improve, NO ask − 1, max NO) for every enabled player and leaves them up:
you PULL the batter (the strip above each table shows at bat, on deck and in the hole) and REPLACE after a PA
without a home run. The same price and size goes to Kalshi (K), Polymarket (P) and Novig (N) wherever his market is
listed, each post-only and one cent under that venue's NO ask; PULL, PULL ALL and CANCEL ALL cancel every venue.
It only cancels on its own after the fact (his HR in the feed, out of the game, final, trading
lock). The MLB feed lags the stadium by several seconds.